When Martin Scorsese’s The Irishman opened this past November, it looked very much like the film to beat come Oscar time. It was far from the auteur’s best work, but it was popular with some critics and seemed to have all of the elements the Academy looks for: an A-List cast of legends, a bloated budget, and a ridiculously long running time that usually signifies Oscar gold. Making things easier for the voter was the fact he or she didn’t even have to leave home. The film’s distributor, Netflix, immediately pumped the elephant of a movie into home theaters systems everywhere, and therefore, accessibility was never a factor. But is it possible that this Oscar-baiter peaked early? All of the recent love for 1917 (winning Golden Globes for Best Film and Director) and Joker (the recipient of more BAFTA nominations than any other film this season) may be an indication that the tide has shifted and that this collection of Marty’s greatest hits is losing support. But the crew need not worry about whether it will be invited to the party. Look for The Irishman to secure many nominations, that is, unless your name is Robert De Niro. The legend is loved and always a possible contender, but this time, he is one of many actors (some giving far better performances than his) fighting it out. I would love to see surprises in the Best Actress race. Alfre Woodward and Mary Kay Place gave two of the year’s best performances in two of the year’s more modestly promoted films. I hope the Academy finds them.

The nominees for the 2020 Oscar race will be:

Best Picture

• Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
• Irishman
• Parasite
• 1917
• Marriage Story
• Jojo Rabbit
• Joker
• Little Women

Possible Spoiler: Knives Out. I haven’t met anyone who has seen it and not liked it.

Actor

• Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory
• Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
• Adam Driver, Marriage Story
• Taron Egerton, Rocketman
• Joaquin Phoenix, Joker

Possible Spoiler: Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems

Actress

• Awkwafina, The Farewell
• Scarlet Johansson, Marriage Story
• Lupita Nyong’o, Us
• Charlize Theron, Bombshell
• Renee Zellweger, Judy

Possible Spoiler: Saoirse Ronan, Little Women.

Supporting Actor

• Tom Hanks, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
• Song Kang Ho, Parasite
• Al Pacino, The Irishman
• Joe Pesci, The Irishman
• Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Possible Spoilers: Anthony Hopkins, The Two Popes and Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse.

Supporting Actress

• Kathy Bates, Richard Jewell
• Laura Dern, Marriage Story
• Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers
• Margot Robbie, Bombshell
• Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell

Possible Spoiler: Florence Pugh, Little Women

Director

• Greta Gerwig, Little Women
• Bong Joon Ho, Parasite
• Sam Mendes, 1917
• Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
• Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Possible Spoilers: Noah Baumbach, Marriage Story and Todd Phillips, Joker

Original Screenplay

• The Farewell
• Marriage Story
• 1917
• Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
• Parasite

Adapted Screenplay

• The Irishman
• Jojo Rabbit
• Joker
• Little Women
• The Two Popes

Foreign Film

• Atlantics
• Beanpole
• Les Miserables
• Pain and Glory
• Parasite